Trust,acceptance and knowledge of technological and environmental hazards in Chile

Studies over the past decade have found empirical links between trust in risk management institutions and the risk perceptions and acceptability of various individual hazards. Mostly addressing food technologies, no study to date has explored wider possible relationships among all four core variables (risk, benefit, trust and acceptability) covering a heterogeneous group of hazards. Our prime objective was to ascertain effects among social trust in regulatory entities, and the public's perceived risk, perceived benefit and the degree of acceptability towards both technological and environmental hazards. We also assess whether trust in regulatory authorities is the cause (causal model) or a consequence (associationist model) of a hazard's acceptability for a wide and heterogeneous range of hazards on all four core variables. Using a web‐based survey, 539 undergraduates in Chile rated the five variables across 30 hazards. Implications for technology and environmental risk management organizations are discussed. Independent of the magnitude of the perceived risk or benefit surrounding a given hazard, or how knowledgeable the public claim to be of it, the trust sustained in regulatory institutions will either generate or be the consequence of public attitudes towards the hazard.     

Mobility,risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of ‘rational’ decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of ‘pure risk’ as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations.     

There's more to volatility than volume

It is widely believed that fluctuations in transaction volume, as reflected in the number of transactions and to a lesser extent their size, are the main cause of clustered volatility. Under this view bursts of rapid or slow price diffusion reflect bursts of frequent or less frequent trading, which cause both clustered volatility and heavy tails in price returns. We investigate this hypothesis using tick by tick data from the New York and London Stock Exchanges and show that only a small fraction of volatility fluctuations are explained in this manner. Clustered volatility is still very strong even if price changes are recorded on intervals in which the total transaction volume or number of transactions is held constant. In addition the distribution of price returns conditioned on volume or transaction frequency being held constant is similar to that in real time, making it clear that neither of these are the principal cause of heavy tails in price returns. We analyse recent results of Ane and Geman (2000 Ane, T and Geman, H. 2000. Order flow, transaction clock, and normality of asset returns. J. Finance, 55(5): 2259–2284. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]: J. Finance, 55, 2259–2284) and Gabaix et al. (2003 Gabaix, X, Gopikrishnan, P, Plerou, V and Stanley, H.E. 2003. A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations. Nature, 423: 267–270. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]: Nature, 423, 267–270), and discuss the reasons why their conclusions differ from ours. Based on a cross-sectional analysis we show that the long-memory of volatility is dominated by factors other than transaction frequency or total trading volume.     

Applying free random variables to random matrix analysis of financial data. Part I: The Gaussian case

We apply the concept of free random variables to doubly correlated (Gaussian) Wishart random matrix models, appearing, for example, in a multivariate analysis of financial time series, and displaying both inter-asset cross-covariances and temporal auto-covariances. We give a comprehensive introduction to the rich financial reality behind such models. We explain in an elementary way the main techniques of free random variables calculus, with a view to promoting them in the quantitative finance community. We apply our findings to tackle several financially relevant problems, such as a universe of assets displaying exponentially decaying temporal covariances, or the exponentially weighted moving average, both with an arbitrary structure of cross-covariances.     

Learning from repetitive acquisitions: Evidence from the time between deals

Knowledge gleaned from previous acquisitions may confer valuation expertise and other benefits. But numerous acquisitions also entail costs, due to problems of incorporating diverse units into an ever larger firm. Such benefits and costs are not directly observable from outside the firm. This article proposes a simple model to infer their relative importance, using the time between successive deals. The data requirements are minimal and allow the use of all mergers and acquisitions during 1992–2009 (more than 300,000 deals). The results provide evidence of learning gains through repetitive acquisitions, especially under CEO continuity and when successive deals are more similar.     

Human approach in the quality management system of manufacturing SMEs in Mexico Theoretical review and proposal of a conceptual model

Currently, globalization and competitiveness exert an enormous pressure on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector in Mexico, for that reason they must be more effective and flexible to meet customer demand. In this article, we reviewed the literature on the subject according to the level of significance of variables like human factor, quality culture, quality management system (QMS) and innovation, considered as key elements of a latent competitive scale as from their exploration and explanation. The main objective of this research is to carry out a critical analysis by relating the importance of the human factor of QMS, through research on socio-emotional, intellectual factors and ethics values for achieving the effectiveness of QMS at all organization levels; it also provides a link between variables of quality culture, value propositions, and innovation. Finally, this work discusses the design of a human factor-based quality model to ensure the value propositions for customer and stakeholders’ satisfaction.     

EBITDA margin in brazilian companies Variance decomposition and hierarchical effects

This study explores the controversy between the business and academic perspectives regarding earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Some authors argue that EBITDA is not useful as an indicator, except for comparing companies within the same sector (Assaf Neto, 2003, McClure, 2006, Stumpp, 2000). On the other hand, the business world strongly uses this type of indicator as a tool to support its decisions (Schmalensee, 1985, Moraes, 2005). This difference in opinions has aroused interest in understanding the reasons for its use and has raised questions regarding the usefulness of EBITDA for comparing companies from both the same and different sectors. By applying Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM), the main goal of this research is to observe EBITDA behavior across companies selling goods in Brazil, comparing them within the same sector and across different sectors over time. This research allows for the analysis of the reasons why EBITDA patterns occasionally occur. The results show significant variation in EBITDA among companies across the same sector and across companies from different sectors. On the other hand, our results have shown, nevertheless, that the variability among companies from the same sector was the highest one, raising questions on the actual usefulness of this indicator to compare companies from the same sector.     

Valuación de opciones de tipo de cambio asumiendo distribuciones α-estables

This paper aims to present the valuation of options using the Black-Scholes method assuming α-stable distributions as an alternative option valuation in the Mexican market. The use of α-stable distributions for modelling financial series allows to overcome the classical valuation main weakness which assumes normality, by capturing the presence of heavy tails and asymmetry in financial time series. One of the main results is the price differential between the two models and the effect of alpha and beta parameters on prices; to show the difference valuation is made of a call option and a put option for the peso-dollar exchange rate. Likewise, basic sensitivity measurements of options (delta, gamma, and rho) were made and the effect of the stability parameter (α) was made on the implied volatility of options assuming the α-stable price as the market price.     

Seasonal mortality for fractional ages in short term life insurance

Abstract

Fernández-Durán, and Gregorio-Domínguez, Seasonal Mortality for Fractional Ages in Life Insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal. A uniform distribution of deaths between integral ages is a widely used assumption for estimating future-lifetimes; however, this assumption does not necessarily reflect the true distribution of deaths throughout the year. We propose the use of a seasonal mortality assumption for estimating the distribution of future-lifetimes between integral ages: this assumption accounts for the number of deaths that occurs in given months of the year, including the excess mortality that is observed in winter months. The impact of this seasonal mortality assumption on short-term life insurance premium calculations is then examined by applying the proposed assumption to Mexican mortality data.     

Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration

The asymmetric and persistent adjustment of the European real exchange rates is investigated using the framework of non-linear cointegration. The episodes of slow mean-reversion dynamics over the period from 1979 to 1999 are explained. A test of unit root against STAR cointegration is proposed and some complete estimations and stochastic simulations of ESTAR models are presented. The presence of effective non-linear adjustment during the moving of the currencies to their long-run fundamental equilibrium exchange rate value is discussed.